Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport has released its interim report on the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 one year ago, stating that the aircraft suffered critical damage from external metal fragments. Pilots of the Embraer E190 lost full control of the aircraft before crashing near Aktau in western Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 individuals onboard.

While the report stops short of directly naming Russia as responsible, the consensus is that Russian forces fired anti-air weapons at Ukrainian drones in the area, inadvertently striking the commercial jet. Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently acknowledged responsibility for the tragedy, stating that fragments from a Russian missile was the likely cause.

It has now been over a year since the deadly crash of Flight 8243 on December 25, 2024, and significant progress has been made on the accident investigation side. As per the Kazakhstan Ministry of Transport’s interim report, the damage sustained by the E190 was consistent with metal fragments made by iron-based alloys such as steel. Flight 8243 departed Baku en route to Grozny, Russia, but was unable to land due to adverse weather.

Having aborted its attempt to land, passengers onboard heard a loud bang, which has been attributed to a Russian missile that detonated near the aircraft. The aircraft then diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, but had sustained critical damage to its hydraulic system. This left pilots with impaired control of the aircraft, ultimately leading to the deadly crash during an emergency landing attempt near Aktau.

The report added that no traces of explosives were found on any parts of the aircraft, stating,

« A traceological examination of a part of the pipe of the hydraulic system No. 2 was carried out. The results of the examination revealed that the pipe was damaged. The mechanism of damage is metal tearing as a result of contact with fragments (foreign objects) made of iron-based metal alloys (steel base). »

Investigation Continues

The investigation team has now completed its analysis of the E190’s two black boxes — the flight data recorder (FDR) and the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) — and called in multiple specialists to aid on the forensic side. The FDR contains key data on aircraft performance and systems, while the CVR provides a clearer picture of decisions and actions taken in the cockpit by the flight crew.

An attempt was also made to recover data from the aircraft’s Honeywell Central Maintenance Computer, but severe thermal damage prevented any data extraction. Nonetheless, investigators continue to work with Honeywell and US authorities on alternative data recovery attempts.

There are two specialized working groups involved in the investigation, one focusing on recreating the aircraft’s hydraulic failure, and the other analyzing the conflict-zone flight risk component of the crash. It must be noted that this week’s update is only an interim report, with the ministry stating that the full investigation timeline will depend on progress with the remaining analyses.

The Risk Of Flying Around Conflict Zones

Last year’s crash demonstrated why it is such a safety risk to conduct commercial aviation operations around active war zones. There have been several tragedies involving commercial aircraft flying through conflict zones over the decades. The most high-profile incident in recent memory was Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in July 2014, which was shot down by pro-Russian separatists as it overflew Ukraine, killing 298 passengers and crew.

There was also the downing of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752 in Tehran in early 2020, which occurred during a period of heightened alert immediately after an Iranian rocket attack on US air bases in the region. The UIA Boeing 737-800 was hit by two surface-to-air missiles after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mistakenly identified it as a threat.

The issue has become a hot topic recently amid the US military’s heightened activity around Venezuela in recent weeks. With a larger number of US military aircraft flying in the region (and often with their transponders off), there have already been a few near-misses with commercial aircraft, including one incident involving a JetBlue plane almost hitting a US refueling tanker.