Europe’s biggest low-cost carriers are gearing up for a major return to Ukraine as a peace deal is expected in the coming weeks. This would fully reopen Ukraine’s airspace for commercial operations, and the likes of Ryanair and Wizz Air will be ready to resume service to airports across the country.

The industry is confident that demand for air service to Ukraine will skyrocket once a peace agreement with Russia is signed, including Ukrainians returning home, greater economic investment and increased tourism interest in post-war Ukraine.

Airlines Ready For Quick Ukraine Return

As reported by the Financial Times, European LCCs are making preparations for a rapid return to Ukraine’s airports once a much-anticipated peace deal crosses the finish line. Wizz Air said it will base up to 15 aircraft in Ukraine within two years of any deal, potentially rising to 50 aircraft within seven years. Wizz was the biggest foreign carrier in Ukraine prior to the conflict, which broke out in early 2022 and forced the indefinite closure of Ukrainian airspace.

Ryanair has also confirmed it is ready to return to Ukraine, saying it is capable of launching flights with just two weeks’ notice following a peace agreement. In fact, Ryanair officials have already extensively visited Ukrainian airports to size up the airline’s return, with an ambitious plan to serve up to four million annual passengers in the works. This would represent growth of almost three times its passenger count in 2021, when Ryanair served around 1.5 million passengers in Ukraine.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Wizz Air chief executive József Váradi commented,

« We have planned for this. As soon as the airspace opens, we are going to be very quick to re-establish ourselves. Re-opening would be a significant opportunity for us. »

A Boom In Catastrophe Tourism

Wizz CEO Váradi has predicted that one of the main drivers of demand for travel to a reopened Ukraine would be tourism of its post-conflict landscape. There has been a tendency for tourists to visit ongoing or recent conflict spots, a practice that has been termed « catastrophe tourism, » with Váradi drawing parallels with the surge in visitors to Berlin after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

There would also be considerable travel demand related to Ukraine’s economic recovery after the devastation of war. According to the United Nations, the total economic cost of rebuilding Ukraine over the next decade is estimated at $524 billion, but this only accounts for damage inflicted between 24 February 2022 to 31 December 2024.

Finally, returning Ukrainians who escaped the country would comprise a significant portion of the initial traffic. There are estimated to be over 7 million Ukrainian nationals dispersed around the world, many of whom will be eager to return home by air. According to Visit Ukraine, around 15 million foreign visitors traveled to Ukraine in 2019, before dropping to 10.8 million in 2021, primarily due to the impact of ongoing COVID travel restrictions.

easyJet Explores Ukraine Flights

UK-based budget carrier easyJet has also expressed its interest in operating flights to Ukraine, despite not previously serving the country. The airline’s CEO, Kenton Jarvis, recently remarked in an interview with The Independent that Ukraine will become « Europe’s largest building project » and has the operational infrastructure in place to restart commercial service quickly.

Were easyJet to make an entrance into the Ukraine market, Jarvis said it would likely do so initially from its London Gatwick base, before potentially expanding service from airports like Belfast and Liverpool.

Ukraine’s largest airport, Kyiv Boryspil International Airport (KBP), is maintaining a degree of operational readiness for when commercial operations resume. The airport is sticking to a state of one-month readiness, but said it could be ready in less than a few weeks. Meanwhile, the country’s national carrier — Ukraine International Airlines — has remained in a state of dormancy, with no clear answers about its future.