After more than a decade without Boeing twin-aisle orders, Delta Air Lines finally returned to the American OEM for 30 787-10s. Deliveries will start in 2031. In this blog post, we analyze why the carrier ordered the type and did not go back to Airbus.
Fleet renewal context
Delta Air Lines’ oldest twin-aisle aircraft are its 37 remaining 767-300ERs. They were delivered between 1990 and 2000. Firm orders and options totaling 44 units (10 options for the A330-900, 4 firm orders, 10 options for the A350-900, and 20 firm orders for the A350-1000) will replace the 767-300ERs and accommodate growth.
The next aircraft up for replacement are the 21 767-400ERs, delivered from 2000 to 2002. Given how full OEM production lines are, deliveries with a new A350 or 787 order would start in the early 2030s. Delta Air Lines usually operates its twin-aisle aircraft until around their 30th anniversary (and up to 35). The 767-400ERs usually operate to Latin America and Western Europe.
Given up-gauging trends, the natural candidates are the A330-900, A350-900, and 787-10.
Many secondary reasons
Some might find it surprising that Delta decides to operate both the A330neo and the Dreamliner. However, given Delta’s twin-aisle fleet size, operating both A330neo (39 with 10 more options) and 787s (up to 60 with options) isn’t too penalizing.
Delta Air Lines does not hesitate to make “unconventional” choices if the economics are right. The carrier received launch customer pricing on the A330-900 and a lucrative maintenance contract. The Atlanta-based carrier undoubtedly received competitive pricing from Boeing and General Electric for the 787-10.
Given the more tense geopolitical context, the carrier likely wants to diversify its OEM sourcing away from Airbus. It was the most exposed US carrier to tariffs because Airbus’ twin-aisle aircraft are exclusively assembled in Europe.
The main reason
The COVID-19 pandemic provides a clue for the carrier’s choice. Delta decided to dispose of its 777-200ER/LR fleet, despite them being much younger on average than the 767s or most A330s.
They had excessive payload-range capabilities for their intended use, especially with the arrival of dozens of A350-900s. Higher payload-range capabilities aren’t a free lunch. They require heavier aircraft, which penalizes performance on shorter routes. Delta Air Lines has successfully used older 767s for its trans-Atlantic and Latin American networks, better matching their capabilities for the mission range.
The 787-10 has less range than the A330-900, and a lot less than the A350-900. It has a bit more passenger capacity than the A350-900 but meaningfully more cargo volume (40 vs. 36 LD3s).
In the context of traffic growth and a higher share of US passengers purchasing premium class seats, the carrier decided that the 787-10 or A350-900 class was better suited than the A330-900. Those aircraft would operate on missions to Western Europe or Latin America, usually up to 10 hours.
Other things equal, the 787-10 usually has better economics than the A350-900 on shorter missions of up to 10 hours. Despite having marginally less efficient engines, its lighter airframe (and larger cargo volume) makes it more efficient on shorter hops. The upcoming increased gross weight variant (that adds around 400 nautical miles of range) is a welcome bonus. The A350-900 is usually better suited for longer missions because payload/range tradeoffs kick in earlier on the 787-10.
Conclusion
In Delta’s opinion, the superior performance of the 787-10 compared with the A350-900 on missions up to 10 hours was more than enough to compensate for the costs of introducing a new aircraft family to the carrier’s fleet.
Delta Air Lines isn’t the only carrier to order and operate both the 787-10 and A350-900. Several Asia Pacific carriers (Singapore Airlines, Korean Air, China Airlines) have made this choice.
After Delta Air Lines’ order, the only major global carrier (operating 50 or more passenger aircraft) that has not ordered the Dreamliner is Cathay Pacific. Time will tell whether the carrier orders the variant to replace its aging A330-300s and 777-300s.
Delta Air Lines has now largely sealed the replacement of its aging 767 fleet. The next phase, in the mid-to-late 2030s, will be to replace the A330ceos. The 30 787-10 options could mostly replace the 32 A330-200 and A330-300 delivered from 2003 until 2007.