Air service between China and Japan is being slashed for December after a flare-up in political tensions occurred. Chinese state media have indicated that nearly half of all scheduled flights have been canceled, creating significantly fewer options for travelers. OAG schedules analysis shows Chinese carriers cutting their filed December flying over early November plans, ultimately trimming seats and frequencies while dropping a dozen nonstop airport pairs.

These reductions hit leisure-heavy destinations like Osaka and Sapporo, all while threatening peak season revenue for airlines and Japan’s inbound tourism economy. Carriers are redeploying aircraft onto other routes while the remaining seats may be priced higher, especially for travelers looking to book in the winter and the spring, both of which are peak travel seasons due to Japan’s ski industry.

Airlines Revised Schedules

Airlines have elected to revise their December schedules after a diplomatic flare-up occurred in early November. OAG Schedule analysis shows how Chinese carriers cut planned flying in December 2025 by around 400,000 seats, according to filings published on December 1, analyzed by Aviation Week. This is consistent with the actions taken by Chinese carriers in the past amid similar competitive market dynamics.

In the full Chinese-Japanese market, capacity fell by a similar amount as a whole, highlighting how these flight cuts were primarily carried out by Chinese legacy carriers. Several city pairs were removed from schedules as a result, while most remaining routes saw trims to overall schedules. Chinese state media reported that around 40% of China-to-Japan December flights were scrapped, with over 1,900 cancellations also in the works as Osaka and Sapporo landed among the hardest-hit individual destinations.

Route Maps Have A Tendency To Shrink Quickly

This pullback is being driven primarily by Chinese carriers, and it is visible in both network breadth and flight density. China Eastern, the largest operator in this unique bilateral market, trimmed its December plan by around 13% while Air China was down nearly 10%. Seats offered by China Southern were cut by around 24%, Spring Airlines seats dropped by 36.3%, Juneyao seats fell by 41.1% and Shenzhen Airlines quite literally cut half of its services.

Beyond simple reductions in service frequency, carriers also deleted entire nonstop airport pairs from December schedules, including routes to cities like Osaka, New Chitose, and Nagoya. Even on some remaining routes, some of the largest concentrations of seat removals occurred on routes to cities like Osaka and Hokkaido.

Routes to Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) lost more than 44,000 seats in comparison to earlier schedule filings. Of the 97 routes that they planned as of November 3, only around 85 will now operate, and just 20 avoided any major capacity cut, reshaping airline route networks in anticipation of the upcoming holiday. These moves are made amid a large amount of network restructuring undertaken by Chinese carriers, which have shifted the way they serve international markets as a result of both changing market dynamics and a shifting geopolitical context.

The Intersection Of Politics And Economics

These cuts come as politics ultimately bleeds into air travel demand. These schedule revisions are undoubtedly linked to a surge in frictions between Beijing and Tokyo after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi discussed the possibility of Japanese involvement in a Taiwanese conflict. This prompted Chinese travel and student advisories as tighter economic and cultural measures were quickly deployed by both governments.

Chinese state media counted widespread cancellations, and the Chinese government issued a safety warning against travel to Japan, leading airlines to offer travel waivers through the end of the month. For airlines, the immediate plan here is both operational and financial. Refunds spike, premium holiday loads will soften, and aircraft will have to be reassigned quickly in order to protect overall utilization.

For Japan, the fewer seats available for its largest source of visitors threatens overall tourism momentum. Some analysts have estimated that this could result in upwards of $1.2 billion in lost visitor spending through the end of the year, while alternative destinations may pick up diverted demand, especially for cities heavily reliant on Chinese leisure traffic in the coming months and beyond.